Basic reproduction number estimation and forecasting of COVID-19: A case study of India, Brazil and Peru

Since the start of COVID-19 pandemic, definition normal life has changed drastically. The number cases this pandemic is rising everyday across globe. In study, we propose a compartmental model, which considers isolation factor Coronavirus infected individuals. model consists five compartments: susceptible (S), exposed (E), Infected (I), Isolated (L) and recovered (R). We have estimated parameters system expression basic reproduction $ R_0 using real data set. exact value computed for India, Brazil Peru. local global stability analysis disease-free equilibrium endemic points carried out. forecasting done data. It been observed that to understand time frame be divided into small intervals as are changing with time. Within approximately four months (i.e. from July October 2020), transmission rate India reduced by 84%. Whereas in Peru increased 79% 45% respectively. sensitivity various involved analyzed. presented complete check existence backward bifurcation.